Accuracy of the Prophecy

Requiring a period of 70 years between the destruction of Jerusalem in Nebuchadnezzar's 18th/19th year and the return of Jewish captives (somewhere around) Cyrus II's first year is clearly incompatible with all the chronological data we have for the Neo-Babylonian period. There is no historical evidence to suggest that this 70-year prophecy (as interpreted) came true.

Alternative Interpretations

There are some alternative interpretations of Jeremiah's prophecy that could in theory satisfy the historical evidence however the Watch Tower has chosen to reject these [1, p. 138] [2, p. 27]:

However, based primarily on such secular records, some persons figure that Jerusalem was destroyed in 587/6 B.C.E. and that the Jews came under Babylonian domination in Nebuchadnezzar’s accession year, which they calculate as being 605 B.C.E. They thus hold 605 B.C.E. to be the date when Jeremiah 25:11 began to be fulfilled: “All the land shall be a desolation; and they shall serve among the Gentiles seventy years.” (Bagster’s Greek Septuagint) If that were so and the Gentile Times were counted from then, it would put the end of the prophetic “seven times” in the World War year of 1916. Yet, as stated, we believe that there is much stronger reason for accepting the information in God’s inspired Word, which points to the Gentile Times’ beginning in October 607 B.C.E. and ending in October of 1914 C.E.

Instead of saying 70 years “at Babylon,” many translations read “for Babylon.” (NIV) Some historians therefore claim that this 70-year period applies to the Babylonian Empire. According to secular chronology, the Babylonians dominated the land of ancient Judah and Jerusalem for some 70 years, from about 609 B.C.E. until 539 B.C.E. when the capital city of Babylon was captured.

The Bible, however, shows that the 70 years were to be a period of severe punishment from God—aimed specifically at the people of Judah and Jerusalem, who were in a covenant to obey him. (Exodus 19:3-6) When they refused to turn from their bad ways, God said: “I will summon ... Nebuchadnezzar king of Babylon ... against this land and its inhabitants and against all the surrounding nations.” (Jeremiah 25:4, 5, 8, 9, NIV) While nearby nations would also suffer Babylon’s wrath, the destruction of Jerusalem and the 70-year exile to follow were called by Jeremiah “the punishment of my people,” for Jerusalem had “sinned greatly.”—Lamentations 1:8; 3:42; 4:6, NIV.

Discussion in the Awake! 2012

The series 'The Bible — A Book of Accurate Prophecy' in the Awake! magazine attempts to demonstrate the 'divine inspiration' of Jeremiah's 70-year prophecy.

Regarding the 70-year period (Jeremiah 25:11) the Awake! says [3, p. 13]:

Fulfillment: After an extended siege, Nebuchadnezzar sacked Jerusalem in 607 B.C.E. He also conquered other Judean cities, including Lachish and Azekah. (Jeremiah 34:6, 7) He deported most of the survivors to Babylon, where they were held captive for 70 years.
What history reveals:
● The Bible identifies Nebuchadnezzar as being the king of Babylon about the time of Jerusalem’s destruction. Archaeological evidence supports the Bible’s testimony about his existence. A cameo made of onyx stone is on display in Florence, Italy. It bears an inscription that says in part: “In honour of Merodach, his lord, Nebuchadnezzar, king of Babylon, in his life-time had this made.” Nebuchadnezzar ruled from 624 to 582 B.C.E.
● The book The Bible and Archaeology says that excavations and surveys in Lachish confirm the following: “The final destruction was violent, and so fierce was the fire which destroyed the city [Lachish] that the limestone of the buildings turned to lime.

However, as we have seen there is no evidence for the dating the destruction of Jerusalem to 607 BC without making the unsupported assumptions that the 70-year prophecy did come true and that the Jews returned during the 2nd year of Cyrus II, and then counting back 70 years from 537 BC.

Then the 'What history reveals' section contains the statement that Nebuchadnezzar 'ruled from 624 to 582 B.C.E.', but no historical evidence for this has been provided (independent of Jeremiah's prophecy which this paragraph is trying to prove the accuracy of).

Regarding the return of the exiles (Jeremiah 29:10) the Awake! says [3, p. 14]:

Fulfillment: After 70 years of exile, from 607 to 537 B.C.E., King Cyrus of Persia released the Jewish captives and allowed them to return to their homeland to rebuild the temple in Jerusalem.—Ezra 1:2-4.
What history reveals:
● Did the Israelites remain captive in Babylon for 70 years as the Bible foretold? Note the comments of a leading Israeli archaeologist, Ephraim Stern. “From 604 B.C.E. to 538 B.C.E.—there is a complete gap in evidence suggesting occupation. In all that time, not a single town destroyed by the Babylonians was resettled.” The so-called gap in which there was no occupation or resettling of conquered territory corresponds closely to Israel’s exile in Babylon from 607 to 537 B.C.E.—2 Chronicles 36:20, 21.
● Ancient nations throughout Mesopotamia wrote on tablets made of soft clay. One hardened clay tablet, known as the Cyrus Cylinder, dates back to about 539 B.C.E., the same year that King Cyrus of Persia overthrew the Babylonian Empire. One inscription reads: “I am Cyrus, . . . king of Babylon.” The same inscription goes on to report: “I returned to [certain previously named] sacred cities on the other side of the Tigris, the sanctuaries of which have been ruins for a long time, the images which (used) to live therein . . . I (also) gathered all their (former) inhabitants and returned (to them) their habitations.” This secular source harmonizes with the Bible prophecy that states that the Jewish exiles would be repatriated to their homeland—a prophecy recorded about 200 years in advance.

The quotation of Stern would appear to be grossly misleading, in full context he actually says [4, p. 46]:

The savage Babylonian destruction of Jerusalem is well documented both in the Bible (in the books of Jeremiah and Lamentations) and in the archaeological record. When Nebuchadnezzar first placed the city under siege in 597 B.C.E., the city quickly capitulated, thereby avoiding a general destruction. But in response to a revolt by Judah's King Zedekiah, Nebuchadnezzar dispatched an army that, after an 18- month siege, captured and destroyed the city in 586 B.C.E. The evidence of this destruction is widely confirmed in Jerusalem excavations.

On his first swing through Judah, Nebuchadnezzar had destroyed much of Philistia-Ekron, Tel Barash, Tell Jemmeh, Ruqeish and Tel Sera'. Particularly devastated was Ashkelon, which the Babylonians sacked in 604 B.C.E.

Similar evidence of Babylonian destruction can be found throughout the Beersheba Valley, in the Aravah (the valley south of the Dead Sea) and in the Jordan River valley. From south to north, we can trace the effects of Babylonian might-at Tell el-Kheleifeh on the coast of the Red Sea, at Ein Gedi on the shore of the Dead Sea, and further north at Dan, the source of the Jordan River. The same is true in excavations at major northern sites Hazor; Megiddo, overlooking the Jezreel Valley; and Dor, on the Mediterranean coast-and in central Judah, where, in addition to Jerusalem, we may look at Rarnat Rahel and Lachish, among other sites.

But the strange thing is that above the remains left by these destructions, we find no evidence of occupation until the Persian period, which began in about 538 B.C.E. For roughly half a century-from 604 B.C.E. to 538 B.C.E.-there is a complete gap in evidence suggesting occupation. In all that time, not a single town destroyed by the Babylonians was resettled. This is true even of the old Assyrian fortresses along the Way of the Sea (the Via Maris); they were reoccupied only in the Persian period, as shown by the recently excavated fort at Rishon le-Zion.

And further on in his article [4, p. 51]:

The destruction of Judah is followed by the Persian period, when, following the eclipse of the Babylonians by the comparatively benign Persians, the Jewish exiles were permitted to return to Palestine.

I do not mean to imply that the country was uninhabited during the period between the Babylonian destruction and the Persian period. There were undoubtedly some settlements, but the population was very small. Many towns and villages were either completely or partly destroyed. The rest were barely functioning. International trade virtually ceased. Only two regions appear to have been spared this fate-the northern part of Judah (the region of Benjamin) and probably the land of Ammon, although the latter region awaits further investigation.

The Awake! claims that their 607-537 BC period for a deserted Jerusalem is supported by Stern's 604-538 BC period during which cities destroyed by Babylon were not resettled. However, as can be seen Stern does not believe Jerusalem was destroyed or unoccupied until 586 BC. The year 604 BC is referring to the Philistine city of Ashkelon being plundered in the first year of Nebuchadnezzar (see BM 21946 Obv. 18).

Discussion in The Bible—God’s Word or Man's?

Jeremiah's prophecy is discussed in Chapter 9 'Prophecies That Came True' [5, p. 120]:

7 The Archaeological Encyclopedia of the Holy Land notes that when the Babylonian onslaught was over, “the destruction of the city [Jerusalem] was a total one.” Archaeologist W. F. Albright states: “Excavation and surface exploration in Judah have proved that the towns of Judah were not only completely destroyed by the Chaldeans in their two invasions, but were not reoccupied for generations—often never again in history.” Thus, archaeology confirms the shocking fulfillment of this prophecy.

Whilst the chapter states that Jeremiah's prophecy is confirmed by archaeology, the provided evidence only demonstrates that Jerusalem was destroyed, not that there was a 70-year period between as claimed by the Watch Tower.

References